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FEBRUARY 4,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS – As expected, Marco Rubio is moving up in New Hampshire polls, but most experts on the state believe Trump will still win the primary.  On the Dem side, Bernie Sanders is still well ahead, although some polls show Hillary gaining some points.  The key question is whether voters actually like Bernie, or whether his support is a protest vote against Hillary's perceived dishonesty, phoniness, greed and corruption.  The perception is correct.  Another issue, rising across the internet, is whether Bill Clinton is hurting or helping his wife.  He usually polls positively as an ex-president, but the campaign has reminded voters of his White House scandals.  In addition he looks awful, and that reminds voters that he and Hillary are getting into their elder years.

COMMON SENSE FROM THE CATHOLIC BISHOPS OF GHANA – From CNS – (CNSNews.com) – In reference to two former Guantanamo Bay prisoners who were transferred to Ghana in West Africa, the Catholic Bishops’ Conference there said it was a “wrong and dangerous” decision, that the two men were “not refugees but time-bombs” who clearly “pose a threat,” and that the government should send them “back to wherever they came from.”  In a statement with the headline, “Accepting Former Guantanamo Bay Prisoners in Ghana: Wrong and Dangerous,” the Bishops’ Conference noted that the ex-Gitmo prisoner Mahmoud Omar Mohammed Bin Atef used to fight for Osama bin Laden, and the other ex-prisoner, Khalid Shayk Mohammed, had trained with Al Qaeda.  The bishops demonstrate a clarity of thought missing throughout the U.S. Government.  I thought Obama cared about Africa.  Apparently not.

CARLY FADING – Carly Fiorina's campaign began with such promise.  The expert debater started rising impressively in the polls, but then seemed to collapse.  Now she's been cut from Saturday's GOP debate.  From The Politico:   Carly Fiorina has been excluded from Saturday's Republican debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, ABC News announced on Thursday.  The former Hewlett-Packard CEO has lagged her GOP rivals in national and state-level polls, but she complained in an open letter to the Republican National Committee on Wednesday that the debate process is "broken" and urged the RNC to intervene on her behalf.
“Networks are making up these debate rules as they go along — not to be able to fit candidates on the stage — but arbitrarily to decide which candidates make for the best TV in their opinion," she wrote. "Now it is time for the RNC to act in the best interest of the Party that it represents.”  ABC News will not hold an undercard debate for the bottom tier of the winnowing field. Qualifications for the main debate stage included ranking among the top three in the Iowa caucuses, top six in New Hampshire polls or top six nationally.  I like Carly but I don't think her arguments are sound.  There are simply too many Republican candidates.  The Dems have two, so their debates are more focused, and you learn more about each candidate.  The GOP must figure out a way to run debates that make sense, while at the same time not shutting down candidates.  It's a tough order, but one of the benefits of America's oft-criticized "long" campaigns is that we eventually get to know the competitors pretty well. 

February 4,  2016     Permalink

FIELD MARSHAL OBAMA DOES IT AGAIN – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   We're told how much progress we're making against ISIS.  And then there's the fine print.  From Fox: 

The number of fighters in the Islamic State's army largely "remains the same" as it did a year ago, a U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence estimate tells Fox News.

Officially, ISIS is estimated to have between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters based on the new intelligence estimate, as first reported by USA Today. A year ago, ISIS was estimated to have between 19,000 and 31,000 fighters.

The new estimate means that despite more than 10,000 U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against ISIS starting in August 2014, ISIS largely has maintained the size of its force – due in part to an emerging practice of “forced conscription” and an influx of new members, including foreign fighters flocking to ISIS’ self-declared caliphate.

Territory, however, has been taken back from the vast terror network in that time.

The U.S. military estimates that 40 percent of its territory in Iraq has been retaken. The progress is not so defined in Syria, where just 5 percent of ISIS-controlled land has been retaken. Previous estimates claiming up to 20 percent of ISIS-controlled Syria had been reclaimed have been revised significantly.

COMMENT:  Meanwhile, ISIS has pulled off spectacular overseas attacks, like the ones in Paris.  And it is actively recruiting in the United States.  They have, it's true, lost some territory in Iraq, but ISIS moves around.  It is remarkably flexible, and much larger in scope than Al Qaeda.

I wonder what General of the Army Bernie Sanders would do about ISIS fighters.  Probably give them health benefits.

February 4, 2016       Permalink

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Marco Rubio is showing some movement in the New Hampshire primary race.  The primary is Tuesday.  Even if Rubio doesn't catch Trump, if he surges over the weekend the focus will be more intently on him, like the horse in the Kentucky Derby who races from behind to win in the end.  From WHDH:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) - It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving....

...Donald Trump stays in first, with 36%; Rubio takes over second place, with 15%. Ted Cruz, now in third, has 14%. Jeb Bush, 8%; and John Kasich 7%.

For the rest of the Republicans: Chris Christie, 5 %, Ben Carson, 4%; Carly Fiorina 3% and undecided 8%.

Our tracking poll show it all: Trump on top, but down two points – the first time he's dropped in our poll.

Jeb Bush lost a point; no change for John Kasich.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down.

Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton – 58% to 36% – a 22 point margin.

But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.

COMMENT:  Five days to go.   They may be the most critical five days in the presidential races thus far.

February 4, 2016       Permalink

ECONOMIC GLOOM – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  A new unemployment report is disturbing, and can have significant political impact if the trend continues.  From CNBC:

Layoffs surged in January to the highest levels since July as employers in the retail and energy sectors pulled out the pink slips, according to a private survey out Thursday.

U.S.-based companies announced 75,114 planned job cuts last month, up more than 200 percent from a 15-year low in December, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That figure was also 42 percent higher from a year ago.

Retailers were the biggest job cutter, despite a nearly 8 percent bump in U.S. holiday sales in 2015. The sector slashed 22,246 positions, a seven-year high.

Wal-Mart accounted for much of the payroll reductions. The nation's largest retailer said it plans to close 269 stores and expects to let go 16,000 workers.

Macy's said it will also shutter some locations this year, costing 4,820 employees their jobs.

COMMENT:  Some of the layoffs are due to more online shopping.  But online operations require far fewer employees, so there is a net loss of personnel.  The good jobs are disappearing.  The lesser jobs are growing.  No way to run an economy.

February 4,  2016     Permalink 

FEBRUARY 3,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

JIMMY ENDORSES, IN A WAY – From London's Daily Mirror:   Former US President Jimmy Carter tonight told the UK Parliament he wants Donald Trump to land the Republican nomination ahead of frontrunner Ted Cruz .  Speaking on a visit to Britain, the 91-year-old Democrat warned Mr Cruz is committed to “Far Right-wing politics” which he would pursue “aggressively” if he makes it to the White House.  By contrast, Carter said, outspoken billionaire Mr Trump has no fixed views at all.  “If I had a choice of Republican nominees, between Cruz and Trump, I think I would choose. Trump - which may surprise some of you,” he told an audience in the House of Lords.  I'm sure Donald will describe this endorsement as HUGE.  It ain't.

OBAMA TAKES A RIDE – From Mediaite:  Today, President Barack Obama made the first appearance at a U.S. mosque in his seven-year presidency. He and the Council on American-Islamic Relations selected the Islamic Society of Baltimore for the big event. He made some valid points and included some touching moments, but detractors are continuing to rail against his choice of mosques.  In 2010, the Islamic Society of Baltimore was placed under FBI surveillance following the arrest of one of its members. The member had been planning to bomb an Army recruiting center near the mosque in Catonsville.  As the late Gilda Radner put it, "It's always something."

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – From The Politico:  Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.  The billionaire presidential candidate, whose controversial comments and hard-edged policy proposals have upset many, was nominated for: "his vigorous peace through strength ideology, used as a threat weapon of deterrence against radical Islam, ISIS, nuclear Iran and Communist China,” according to a copy of the nomination letter obtained by the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. According to PRIO, Trump was nominated by an American.  Considering the standards of the Nobel Peace Prize, he'll probably be one of the top contenders.

February 3, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD – AT 6:44 P.M. ET:   We forget that there's big stuff going on outside Iowa and New Hampshire.  A good part of the world is in chaos.  The Mideast is in flames.  Asia is becoming unstable and threatening.  The president visited a Baltimore mosque today to tell the parishioners how much he loved them. 

North Korea is becoming increasingly defiant in one of the most volatile parts of the globe.  From AP:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea warned on Wednesday of "searing" consequences if North Korea doesn't abandon plans to launch a long-range rocket that critics call a banned test of ballistic missile technology.

The South's rhetoric about unspecified harsh consequences comes less than a month after North Korea's defiant fourth nuclear test and as diplomats at the U.N. work on strong new sanctions against the North.

North Korea on Tuesday informed international organizations of its plans to launch an Earth observation satellite on a rocket between Feb. 8 and 25, and if North Korea's past patterns are any clue, angry warnings by its neighbors and Washington probably won't dissuade a coming launch.

The launch declaration, which is meant to warn civilians, shipping and aircraft in the area about the rocket and falling debris, follows North Korea's disputed claim on Jan. 6 to have tested a hydrogen bomb, the country's fourth nuclear test. A launch would be seen as a snub by North Korea of its only major ally, China, whose representative for Korean affairs landed in the North for talks on Tuesday.

South Korean and U.S. officials said the launch would threaten regional security and violate U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban the country from engaging in any ballistic activities.

"We warn that if North Korea proceeds with a long-range missile launch, the international society will ensure that the North pays searing consequences for it as the launch would constitute a grave threat to the Korean Peninsula, the region and the world," senior South Korean presidential official Cho Tae-yong said in televised remarks.

COMMENT:  Why should North Korea heed any warnings?  Why would they be afraid of Field Marshal Obama or Grand Admiral Kerry?

America's allies must feel very alone.

February 3, 2016       Permalink 

HILLARY'S PROBLEMS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  As the old Soviets used to phrase it, it is no secret that Hillary Clinton is having problems.  Bernie Sanders, an aging socialist from a tiny state, is actually running strongly against her.

One of the reasons, of course, is that the Democratic Party under Barack Obama, another socialist (who won't admit it) has lurched further and further to the left.  But another reason is that Hillary Clinton isn't a very good candidate.  Veteran political journalist Bob Woodward explains.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Veteran investigative journalist Bob Woodward on Wednesday said a likely reason Hillary Clinton lost young voters in Iowa to her main Democratic rival is because she has a harsh tone that comes across as insecure.

"I think a lot of it with Hillary Clinton has to do with style and delivery, oddly enough," Woodward said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "She shouts. There is something unrelaxed about the way she is communicating."

Show co-host Joe Scarborough agreed.

"Last night I was watching her and I said to myself, has nobody told her that the microphone works because she always keeps it up here," Scarborough said.

"I'm sorry to dwell on the tone issue, but there's something here where Hillary Clinton suggests she's almost not comfortable with herself," Woodward said. "And, you know, self acceptance is something you communicate on television."

COMMENT:  Absolutely true.  Style counts in politics, and Hillary too often appears the class scold who yearns for the 1960s.   You get the feeling she'll take away your dinner and send you to bed.

Our side has its own problems.  Neither Trump nor Cruz comes off as Mr. Warmth.  But Hillary, by now, should know better. 

February 3, 2016       Permalink

MARCO'S TIME? – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Well, maybe.  This is such an unusual year that predictions are out of order.  But Rubio's strength in Iowa gives him the opportunity to capitalize and move up. 

The New Hampshire polls aren't promising.  Trump still retains a huge lead.  But all Rubio has to do is gain dramatically in the last week to show that he is the one on the move.   It's reported that he has a good ground game going in South Carolina.  He has the support there of U.S. Senator Tim Scott, an African-American, and Congressman Trey Gowdy. 

As more Republicans drop out of the race, the focus will be on the anti-Trumps, Cruz and Rubio.  Many feel that Rubio, by sheer attractiveness of personality, is the more electable.  We'll see.  From The Politico: 

DES MOINES, Iowa — With his strong showing in the caucuses here, Marco Rubio is growing closer to consolidating the establishment wing of the Republican Party — and tightening the noose around the necks of his mainstream GOP rivals, including Jeb Bush.

Rubio’s third-place finish, top party officials, donors and strategists said on Tuesday, positioned him to take the establishment mantle and win over Republican leaders who are eager to coalesce around a single candidate and halt insurgents Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. His foes, conceding that time was growing short to demonstrate strength, spent the day in private strategy sessions where they plotted how to prevent powerful supporters from bolting.

“Marco Rubio controls his own destiny for the first time in this campaign,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “If he performs in New Hampshire, it is very difficult to see how his campaign won’t quickly consolidate a lot of support.”

With the GOP hierarchy warming to Rubio, the squeeze is suddenly on struggling establishment contenders Chris Christie, John Kasich and Bush, who must convince party higher-ups that they have a reason to continue on. On Tuesday morning, top Bush donors and finance officials held two conference calls to discuss the path forward. On one, according to one participant, there was an acknowledgement of the campaign’s increasingly long odds and an agreement that, barring a strong Bush showing in New Hampshire, many Bush donors would soon bolt to Rubio.

COMMENT:  February and March are the crucial months.  I would not be shocked to see a three-way race come March 31st – Trump, Cruz, Rubio.  Nor would I be shocked to see Trump start to falter.  I sense that many are becoming tired of his insult game, and even he acknowledges that refusing to attend the last debate in Iowa may have been a major blunder.

Also, when it comes to getting into the details of issues, Trump is simply weak.  In a real debate over issues, he'd be creamed by either Cruz or Rubio...or Hillary. 

This is very exciting stuff.

February 3, 2016       Permalink

PAUL IS OUT – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Rand Paul has suspended his presidential campaign.  At one time it was believed he could be a major factor, appealing to the libertarian wing of the party. 

But Paul foundered on foreign policy.  Even though he denies it, he comes off as a neo-isolationist, and Republicans have, for decades, been the national-defense party.  They are the heirs, ironically, to the national-defense Democrats, like Henry Jackson and Joe Lieberman, who were wiped out by their own party and sent packing.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul announced Wednesday that he is ending his 2016 presidential bid, and will focus on his reelection bid for Senate.

"It has been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House. Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing fight for the cause of Liberty," Paul said in a statement.

"Across the country thousands upon thousands of young people flocked to our message of limited government, privacy, criminal justice reform and a reasonable foreign policy," Paul continued. "Brushfires of liberty were ignited, and those will carry on, as will I."

"Although today I will suspend my campaign for president, the fight is far from over. I will continue to carry the torch for liberty in the United States Senate and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term."

COMMENT:  I hope that Rand, a talented man, can grow with the years.  I was no fan of his father, Ron Paul, who too often toyed with the fires of bigotry.  Rand has not. 

The field is thinning.  Mike Huckabee has also suspended.  I hope others follow, and we can get serious about selecting a nominee.  Four candidates on that debate stage will be quite enough.

February 3,  2016     Permalink